Is now the time to switch from cash into short duration bonds?
- 14 February 2025 (3 min read)
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There was much debate in 2024 around where investors should look as a cash alternative, given the backdrop of falling interest rates.
However, this narrative has since moved on, as today fewer interest rate cuts are priced in – especially in the U.S. and UK.
Presently, and after 100 basis points (bp) of cuts, we expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates just once more in March before pausing until the second half of 2026. Elsewhere, we anticipate the Bank of England will make four cuts this year while the European Central Bank will likely be more active and deliver back-to-back 25bp cuts until its deposit rate reaches 2.0% in June.
Policy pivot
For those seeking a cash alternative, short duration currently looks attractive in our view, especially as bond yields have risen as sentiment has changed. Taking the ICE/Bank of America one-to-three-year investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) indices as proxies for short-duration credit strategies, yields are mostly above their 2024 lows – see table below:
| 2024 low | Now | Change | vs. Interest rates | |
| US IG 1-3 year | 4.258 | 4.85 | 59 basis points | 0.35% |
| Euro IG 1-3 year | 2.803 | 3.02 | 22 basis points | 0.02% |
| Sterling IG | 4.877 | 5.19 | 31 basis points | 0.44% |
| US HY 1-3 year | 7.115 | 7.07 | 4 basis points | 2.57% |
| Euro HY 1-3 year | 5.018 | 5.14 | 12 basis points | 2.14% |
Source: ICE/Bank of America (Bloomberg) as at 20 January 2025
We believe yields on short-duration bonds seem more attractive. They have risen as much as around 60bp above their 2024 lows, they are above interest rates, and they are well above prevailing and expected inflation rates.
By short duration’s nature, interest rate sensitivity is low, so capital losses on any further upward movement in rates is potentially limited. We don’t expect interest rates to move higher; and the outlook for inflation is key to this. In both the U.S. and UK, December’s inflation data was better than expected, leading oversold bond markets to rally. Fundamentally, we see bond yield levels in general as potentially attractive for investors looking for positive total returns over the next year.
Total returns for the one to three-year indices in 2024:
- US IG = 5.4%
- EU IG = 4.6%
- UK IG = 5.1%
- US HY = 9.1%
- EU HY = 7.3%
Source: ICE/Bank of America (Bloomberg)1
Future returns
Yields are around the level we saw at the beginning of 2024 in U.S. and UK investment grade, while they are lower in high yield and euro investment grade. However, we anticipate that current yields and short duration’s lower sensitivity to interest rate movements may help deliver meaningful total returns in 2025.
Given the macroeconomic and monetary policy uncertainties, short duration bonds could be well suited to this environment. We believe they have the potential to deliver returns which are likely to beat, or at least match, cash returns – as they did in 2024. In our view, we see the advantage of bonds over cash; there is also the optionality for higher returns should interest rates turn out to be reduced more than is currently priced in.
Bonds in 2025
Bond market moves are driven by growth, inflation, policy, and geopolitical events. The first week or so of 2025 saw a continued rise in government (and other) bond yields to multi-year highs. Total returns are far from covered in glory year to date. But, we believe. it is good that bond yields are high, as it raises the probability of decent returns across the asset class. Despite all the commentary around bond markets, liquidity seems good, demand is strong, and losing money through default is still a very rare event.
We believe with yields this high, it is a potentially good time to invest in fixed income – and short-duration may look like a potentially solid cash alternative.
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Disclaimer
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Investment involves risk including the loss of capital.
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